So how do you Time a Refinance Market? Even a screwy one like the one we've got here?
The Short answer is: You Don't.
The Long answer is: You maintain an accurate database of all of your borrowers and all of their Note Rates and adjustment schedules and you market to your database no fewer than 4 times a year but hopefully at least every single month.
With you Database in tact you can then call on all of your clients as Rates tick down into your target zone and you no cost/low cost savings potential for your clients.
You can export from most LOS' (Calyx/Encompass) fairly easily with all the right fields in place.

NOW, when rates for your borrowers start to fall into your target you can prepare your files (call them thin/or credit only) by calling the borrower and offering a free credit update or rate/payment analysis. At this point they'll totally remember/know who you are because you've been in front of them all year so that barrier will be removed from your list.
Pulling credit and running a Property Search in your Title company's database takes your processor/assistant all of 20 minutes. Now you know where the borrower sits, debt, credit, and valuation wise.

All of this will put in you in a position to begin the submission process. In a Volatile Market like this the last thing you want to do is try to "time a rate lock" against valuation/underwriting turn times etc.
The best solution is to Float your loans into me, have them all prepped and clear to close and when you see your price: Boom! Pull the trigger!
We've got a pretty gosh darn easy submission process: Fax/E-mail and you're on your way. Plus our website makes it easy to track your loans, your conditions and lock once submitted.
So, here's the take-away: Float Your Credit packages to me ASAP on any borrower that has a rate of less than 6.25% and due it today!
Then Lock on 15 day pricing with only docs and funding left.

Thank you for all of your kind comments and submissions. Our Walnut Creek Branch is increasing Staffing due to the volume we've been getting!